Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for western Makran coasts, south-east Iran

Makran subduction zone, along the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, has a wide potential seismogenic zone may be capable generating large magnitude (M ~ 9) tsunamigenic earthquakes. Considering ambiguities exist in source characterization for megathrusts like Makran, where detailed geologic, seismic, geodetic data are insufficient, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is most prevalent approach to handle uncertainties estimate more reliable hazard. Here, PTHA performed coastal region western south-eastern Iran. Using logic tree approach, we have considered uncertainty maximum seismic magnitude, earthquake occurrence model, continuity coupling coefficient, rupture depth, presence or absence splay faults, fault locations, slip distribution calculation region. We derived uniform maps two return periods 475 2475 years confidence levels, mean 84th percentile. Ground subsidence effects also evaluated manner. According results, Chabahar Sirik towns at highest lowest risk, respectively.